Us economic recessions dating
The NBER identifies months and quarters of turning points without designating a date within the period that turning points occurred.
The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the period.
All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations.
The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part.
This time series is an interpretation of US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions data provided by The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession.
A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period.
Business Cycle Dating Committee Members FAQs - Frequently asked Questions and additional information on how the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee chooses turning points in the Economy Data and Figures : Microsoft Excel Spreadsheet Bulletin on Retirement and Disability Bulletin on Health including Archive of Lists of Affiliates' Work in Medical and Other Journals with Pre-Publication Restrictions Archives of Bulletin on Aging and Health Digest — Non-technical summaries of 4-8 working papers per month Reporter — News about the Bureau and its activities.
Whereas the NBER business cycle dates are based on a subjective assessment of a variety of indicators, the dates here are entirely mechanical and are calculated solely from historically reported GDP data.
recessions based on a mathematical model of the way that recessions differ from expansions.
Whenever the GDP-based recession indicator index rises above 67%, the economy is determined to be in a recession. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator [JHDUSRGDPBR], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St.During a recession, a significant decline in economic activity spreads across the economy and can last from a few months to more than a year.